Olymp Trade's Nyanzvi Ongororo paGlobal Financial Crisis

14/12/2023 493 0

Zvinoita here kutaura kuti dambudziko rakatanga kamwe kamwe? Kwete. Kuderera kwehupfumi kwakanga kuri mumhepo sezvo hupfumi hwakanga huchikura nokukurumidza kwenguva refu pasina kuderera kwenguva refu.

Dambudziko riri kuuya raive rave zvakare rakabatana neiyo Federal Reserve chiyero chekuwedzera kana hondo yekutengeserana pakati peChina neUnited States. Asi zvikonzero zvengozi zvakanga zvichiderera.

Muna 2018, Donald Trump akakwanisa kumanikidza Fed kuti ichinje zvirongwa zvayo uye kusiya pfungwa yekusimbisa mutemo wemari. Makakatanwa ekutengeserana pakati peBeijing neWashington akaerekana apera murunyararo.

Kutyisidzira kutsva kwakabuda kunze kweblue. Uye kana tikasafunga nezve COVID-19 yekurangana dzidziso pamusoro pekwakabva kwekoronavirus uye kubuda kwayo kwakarongwa, denda rakafumura maronda asina kupora ehurongwa hwemari hwepasi rose.

Hapana anoziva zvichazoitika. Pane akawanda mascenario kuti mamiriro acho angaite sei. Munguva ino yakaoma, basa redu nderekuwana ruzivo rwakakwana uye kudzika sarudzo dzedu dzekudyara pane chokwadi uye pfungwa dzakafungwa.

Kana iwe uchida kunzwisisa izvo zvakaitika kune hupfumi uye nei munhu wese akangoerekana atanga kutaura nezve dambudziko remari, chinyorwa ichi chichauya zvakanaka. Isu takapa pfupiso yenguva yezviri kuitika uye takaunganidza data rakakodzera iro richakubatsira iwe kuita sarudzo chaiyo.

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COVID19. Matatu maScenario uye zvishoma zveOptimism

Hazvina ani zvake angadai akafunga kuti denda reCCIDID-19 coronavirus raizotungamira mukugariswa kwevanhu pasi rose, kuvharwa kwemuganho uye kuvhurwa kwenyika "piggy banks". Nyika ine ruzivo rwekurwisa mhando dzakasiyana dzefuruwenza, SARS uye zvimwe zvirwere zvine njodzi zvine huwandu hwevanhu vanofa, saka mhinduro yenyika kuCOVID-19 yanga yanonoka.

Nekudaro, kucherechedzwa zvishoma nezvishoma kwengozi uye matanho ekuvharirwa aive ekutanga domino mumaketani emaitiro asina kunaka. Uye kudzamara denda rakundwa zviri pamutemo, munhu haafanire kutarisira kupora kwehupfumi uye musika wemasheya.

Kazhinji, mamiriro acho anogona kukura zvichienderana neimwe yeanotevera mamiriro:

Zvishoma nezvishoma, mwero wekufa unozoderedzwa kusvika kuhudiki hudiki. Panguva imwecheteyo, zvirambidzo zvekuvharirwa zvinopera simba. Muchiitiko ichi, kugadzirisa kwehupfumi kunogona kutora makore.
Mushonga unoshanda uchagadzirwa. Kusvika panguva iyoyo, nyika dzichashandisa zviwanikwa zvakakura kuchengetedza denda, asi kana mushonga wavapo, hupfumi hunotanga kukura nekukurumidza.
Denda richapera, asi pachave neCCIDID-19 nyowani kana kubuda kwayo.

Idi rokuti nokukurumidza kana kuti gare gare, denda richapera, rinotipa tariro. Makore anoti pfuurei zana apfuura, nyika yakarwara nefuruwenza yeSpain, iyo yakauraya vanhu vari pakati pemamiriyoni 25 ne100. Pamwe chete, chikamu che30% chehuwandu hwepasi rose chakakanganiswa. Vanachiremba vanoti iyo coronavirus yemazuva ano haina njodzi zvakanyanya.

Mamiriro Akaipisisa Kubva Hondo Yenyika Yechipiri

Vachitaura nezvemamiriro ezvinhu eCCIDID-19, maneja weInternational Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, akataura zvinotevera: "Tinotarisira kudonha kwakanyanya kwehupfumi kubva pakuderera kukuru kwehupfumi".

Hurumende, mabhanga makuru nevemabhizimisi vave kuyedza kuverenga huwandu hwekuderera kwehupfumi hwavachatarisana nahwo gore rino. Zvinoenderana nefungidziro yekutanga, US GDP inogona kudzikira nechikamu chimwe muzvitatu mukota ino.

Vaongorori vebhanga reSwitzerland Credit Suisse vakanyora zvinotevera: “Upfumi hweUS huchadzikira ne33.5%. Izvi zvinoreva kuti nguva kubva muna Kubvumbi 1 kusvika Chikumi 30 iri kuumba kuti ive yakaipisisa kota pane rekodhi kudzokera ku1945 ”.

Nyanzvi dzeBhangi reAmerica, dzaive pakati pevekutanga kutaura kuti US yakawira mukuderera, vanofungidzira kuderera kweGDP ne12%.

Kana tikaenzanisa mamiriro ezvinhu aripo nedambudziko rezvemari ra2008, tinogona kugumisa kuti dambudziko riripo richava rakaoma zvikuru. Kuenzanisa: muchikamu chechina chegore ra2008, kudonha kweGDP kwakagumira ku6.3%. Panguva imwecheteyo, kudonha kweiyo SP 500 index panguva iyi yaive ye30%.

Mune mamwe mazwi, iyo ichangoburwa 35% gadziriso yeUS stock market ine yaitevera yakakwira bounce yaingova chiratidzo chekutanga. Zvichida nekuda kwechikonzero ichi, goridhe rave richidiwa zvakanyanya kubva pakutanga kwegore. MunaEpril, kukosha kwesimbi yakakosha kwakaputsa zvinyorwa zvemakore manomwe apfuura.

Asi chingave chakaipisisa chepasirese kune nyika dziya dzine hupfumi hwakabatana nekutengesa mafuta kunze.

Mafuta: Demarche yeRussia uye Payback neSaudi Arabia

Nyika dzekutengesa goridhe nhema dzakawedzera nhanho dzekutarisana nekupihwa uye kudiwa kwechiyero muna 2016, apo vatambi vakakosha mumusika wemafuta vakapedzisa icho chinonzi OPEC + chibvumirano - chibvumirano chekudzikisa kugadzirwa kwemafuta kwenguva shoma.

Zvisinei, mushure mekuwedzera kwekondirakiti dzakati wandei, pakanga paine kubatana kushoma pakati pemapato. Musika wacho hauna kuterera kune zvirevo zvevadiki kunze kwenyika, seEcuador. Nekudaro, kuramba kweRussia kubvumidza kumwe kudzikiswa kwehuwandu hwezvakagadzirwa zvisina kunaka kwaireva kupera kwechibvumirano cheOPEC +.

Musi wa 6 Kurume, mapato aya akatadza kubvumirana pane imwe nzira. Russia, Kazakhstan neAzerbaijan yakaramba kutsigira kuderedzwa kwezvikamu, izvo Saudi Arabia yakapindura nehungwaru hunozivikanwa kubva kuma80s - yakaderedza mitengo yemafuta uye yakazivisa kuwedzera kwemitengo yekugadzira. Pakazosvika Kubvumbi 1, goridhe dema rakanga radzika mumutengo neinopfuura hafu: Brent yakadonha kubva pamadhora makumi mashanu kusvika pamadhora makumi maviri nematatu padhiramu, WTI yakadonha kubva pamadhora makumi mana nematanhatu kusvika pamadhora makumi maviri.

Mutungamiri weAmerica, VaDonald Trump, vakapindira mukunetsa kwemafuta nekuunza pamwe chete vakuru vakuru veRussia neSaudi Arabia kuti vatangezve nhaurirano. Nenzira, madhipatimendi akasarudzika eUS akabvumira mukana wekutemera zvirango kuRussia neSaudi Arabia, kana nyika idzi dzikasawana kubvumirana.

Asi apo vemafuta vaitaurirana, nyika yese yakamira kuramba huipi hweCOVID-19 denda ndokutanga kutora matanho akasimba. Kuderera kwekuita kwebhizinesi, kudonha kwekutengesa uye kukanganisa kwekuyerera kwekutengesa kunze uye kunze kwenyika kwakakonzera kudzikira kwekushandiswa kwemafuta, asi kugadzirwa hakuna kumira.

Musika Unodiwa Kuti "Uve Bled"

Vagadziri vemari vakadzikama kwechinguva mushure mekunge vatori vechikamu veOPEC + vabvuma kudzikisa kugadzirwa neanenge miriyoni miriyoni madhiramu pazuva. Zvisinei, kukura kwezvinyorwa kwakatungamirira kufungu idzva rekutengesa.

Anosvika 13 miriyoni ekuwedzera madhiramu akarekodhwa svondo rega rega, saka vatengesi vakakurumidza kutanga kutaura nezvekupedza simba rekuchengetedza.

Musika wacho waitoda kubuditswa nekuti tension yainge yanyanya. Izvo zvakakonzera kudonha kunoshamisa muWTI crude future. Kondirakiti yekutumira kwaMay yakanga isiri yakachipa. Kekutanga, mutengo wemafuta wakavharwa munzvimbo isina kunaka uye wakasvika -$40 padhiramu!

Zvechokwadi, iyo chaiyo yemhando iyi yezviridzwa yakaita basa rayo - remangwana rine nguva shoma yekutenderera, uye vatengesi vakatanga kubvisa zvibvumirano izvi vasati vapera (hapana munhu anoda kutakura mafuta chaiwo).

Asi kana tikasapinda zvakadzama muhunyengeri hwezvibvumirano zvekutsinhana, tinogona kugumisa kuti ikozvino oiri haigone kuita madhora zana kana madhora makumi mashanu. Izvi zvinoonekwa kubva mukuwanda kwezviwanikwa munzvimbo dzekuchengetera, kudzikira kwekudiwa kwayo, uye kudzikira kwepasirese.

Mitengo yakaderera yegoridhe dema ichanyanya kukanganisa nyika dzine mabhajeti akabatana zvakanyanya nemari kubva kune oiri kunze kwenyika - semuenzaniso, Middle East states, Mexico, Norway neRussia.

Kazhinji, vaigona kurarama zviri nyore mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro nekuda kwezviwanikwa zvakaunganidzwa. Asi dambudziko rehupfumi rakasimudzwa neCOVID-19 denda rinoda mari yakawanda.

Indasitiri YeOiri Icharatidza Kunaka Dynamics Here?

Takagamuchira chirevo pamusoro penyaya iyi kubva kunyanzvi yakazvimirira kubva kusimba remagetsi:

"Kana Saudi Arabia, US neRussia dzikasaita nekukurumidza pachibvumirano chekudzikisa kugadzirwa, mitengo inodonha zvakanyanya mumamiriro ekuda aripo.

Nzira chete isina njodzi yekukwidza mutengo ndeyekuwedzera zviitiko zvehupfumi muChina neUS. Muchiitiko ichocho, kana kushandiswa kukatanga kudarika kugadzirwa, tichaona kuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma mumakotesheni. Nekudaro, zvichibva pamamiriro ehupfumi hwenyika, izvi hazvigoneke kuti zviitike.

Munguva yakapfuura, misika yaiwanzo 'kununurwa' kubva kune yakawandisa mumusika nekumuka kwemhirizhonga mune imwe kana dzimwe nyika dzinotengesa oiri kunze. Somuenzaniso, kurwisana muLibya, Iraq, uye Venezuela mumakumi amakore mashoma apfuura kwakatungamirira kukukwira kwemitengo yeoiri.

Vatengesi vakanaka vachange vachitarisa matunhu anogadzira mafuta ekukurumidza kusimuka kwe 'mabasa ehondo', nokukurumidza apo nhau dzemakakatanwa, pamwe chete nekuderedzwa kwezvinhu kubva kumatunhu aya, zvichabatsira kutsigira mitengo yemafuta.

Pasina kupokana kwakakosha kana kuderedzwa kwakanyanya kwekugadzirwa, mitengo yemafuta inodzikira kana kuenzanisa padanho rakaderera mukupera kwegore rino. Kungoswedera kwa2021 hupfumi hwenyika huchawana mukana wekuwedzera simba mushure meCOVID-19 denda (chero denda rapera nenguva iyoyo).

Vagadziri vakuru vari kutarisirwa kutanga kuita zvirevo zvitsva zveOPEC + chibvumirano muna Chivabvu. Mamwe matanho ekudzikisa mavhoriyamu ekugadzirwa haanawo kubviswa. Semuenzaniso, mutungamiri weMexico akavimbisa kufunga nezvekuvhara matsime ese matsva.

Imwe nzira inogoneka yekubuda mumamiriro ezvinhu ichave kubuda kwemubatanidzwa mutsva wemafuta pakati peUS neSaudi Arabia. Zvinozivikanwa kuti vakuru veUS vari kutoshanda mukuzadzikiswa kweiyi pfungwa, asi parizvino, chinonyanya kukosha kuWashington kutarisana nedenda uye kusimudza zvishoma zvirambidzo zvekuvharirwa.

Financial Apocalypse: Hongu kana Kwete?

Sezvambotaurwa pamusoro apa, vatengesi vanga vachinzwa kutanga kwekugadziriswa kwepasi rose kwenguva yakareba. Kuve chinyakare yakachengeteka midziyo, goridhe yakatanga kukura muzhizha ra2019 uye yakawedzera zvinopfuura makumi maviri%.

Nekudaro, havasi vese vanobvuma kuti iyo apocalypse yemari ichauya nekukurumidza. Takataura nemutengesi arikuda kupfupika paCFD yegoridhe achishandisa multiplier.

Kuongorora kwake kunobva paElliot Wave Theory. Muchidimbu, pakushandisa nzira iyi, vatengesi vanofunga chati seti yemafungu, vozoisa mumapoka uye kuwana mhinduro kumubvunzo mukuru "Mutengo uchaenda kupi?"

Kubatsira kweiyi nzira ndiko kusununguka kwayo kwakakwana kubva pakuongorora kwakakosha. Chirevo chekuti mafambiro ane chimiro chakafanana nemafungu chinotorwa seaxiom. Uye misanganiswa yese yakatoitika kare. Sezvo pakanga paine nyaya dzakawandisa, taida kuwana maonero evatengesi vasingavateveri.

Kubva mutsamba:

“Ndarama inopindura nechido kune zviri kuitika munyika. Wave tsika (B) yedanho repamusoro inozadziswa. Pamwe pachave nekudzikira kukuru kusvika kumadhora mazana mapfumbamwe paawanzi imwe sechikamu chewaivha (C) ".

Olymp Trade's Nyanzvi Ongororo paGlobal Financial Crisis

Kupona Mujaho uye Kugoverwa kweMamirioni

Kungofanana nedambudziko ripi neripi, nyonganyonga iripo zvino ichauraya mumwe munhu. Semuenzaniso, Argentina haichakwanisa kubvumirana pakugadzirisa chikwereti nevakweretesi vayo vakuru. Zvikurukuru, yakava nyika yokutanga kubhuroka.

Nekune rimwe divi, China, iyo yakawana mukana wechinguvana sezvo yakada kupora kubva padenda. Zviremera zveChina zviri kushingaira kukurudzira bhizinesi kutsigira musika wevashandi, asi panguva imwe chete, vakuru veChinese vanoona kuti kune kudzikira kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika - dzimwe nyika dzakatanga kutenga zvishoma.

Izvo zvakasiyana-siyana zvinogona kuitika zvenguva ino zvinotyisa. Hapana anogona kuva nechokwadi chekuti zvirongwa zvekudzoreredza zvinogadzirwa nehurumende zvichabatsira kukunda kuderera kwehupfumi.

Zvakangodaro, rekodhi-inotyora-tyora nhanho yekukurudzira yeUS inodarika madhora matanhatu emadhora ari kushamisa. Iyo $2 trillion yekununura package ichashandiswa kubhadhara zvakananga kune vese vagari venyika, uye madhora mazana mana emadhora achauya nenzira yezvikwereti zvinyoro kutsigira bhizinesi. Nekuda kwematanho ekukurumidza, dhora rekuAmerica harina kushanduka uye rave kushanda semari yakachengeteka.

Hurumende yeJapan iri kukurukurawo nezvepasuru yakakomba yekubatsira. Pasuru yekusimudzira inosvika madhora 1.1 trillion ichaendeswa kutsigira mabhizinesi nevagari. Mutungamiri Shinzo Abe anotenda kuti matanho aya achatungamira mukukura kweGDP inopfuura 3%.

Zviremera zveEU zviri kutevera nzira imwechete: ivo vanotarisira kupinza hafu yetrillion euros muhupfumi hweEU. Mukuwedzera, pane nhaurirano inopisa pakati pevatungamiri venyika dze eurozone nezve "coronabonds" nyaya. Iwo maeurobond anogona kubatsira nyika dzakanyanya kurova dzeEurope kupora.

Izvo Mutengesi Anofanira Kutarisa

Nyika dzechikamu chechipiri hadzina rupo nekukurudzira. Pachivanhu, ivo vanonyanya kuona dambudziko nekuda kwemaitiro asina kunaka uye kushaikwa kwekusiyana kwehupfumi. Aya matunhu anovimba zvakanyanya nekutengeserana kwepasirese, asi anogona kuratidza kukura kwakanyanya.

Kana iwe uchida chaizvo kuita mari pane ramangwana rekukura wave, teerera kune nyika dzichiri kusimukira dzakaita seBrazil. Iwe unogona kuita mari yenguva refu muETF MSCI Brazil 3x. Iyi portfolio inosanganisira makambani makuru eBrazil.

Iwe unogona zvakare kusarudza masheya emakambani makuru eUS anoratidza hunhu hwemunhu monopolist, senge Facebook neGoogle. Makambani ese ari maviri mapuratifomu makuru ekushambadzira, uye makambani aya haatyi kuisa mari mukusimudzira kunyangwe munguva dzenhamo.

Google inogadzira mafoni uye inovandudza tekinoroji yewebhu. Facebook inozviedza pachezvayo sechishandiso chekubhadhara uye inotarisira kudzokorora kubudirira kweChinese WeChat. Kusiyana nehurumende, makambani eIT anonyatsoziva zvinodiwa pamusika uye anotungamira mafambiro avo. Iyi nzira inowanzounza purofiti kune vanoisa mari.

Bitcoin seNzvimbo Yakachengeteka yeMuridzi

Muchikamu chekutanga che2020, bitcoin yakakwanisa kuona zvese kukura kusvika kumadhora zana uye kudonha kusvika kumadhora mazana mana. Vezvenhau vakati asset iyi yaitevera kusimba kwemusika wemasheya.

Nekudaro, sezvo mamiriro ehupfumi hwenyika akadzikira, iyo cryptocurrency yakaburitsa chinhu chisingaenderane nacho - chido chekugadzikana. Izvi zvinogona kusimbiswa nekudzoka kwayo kusvika pamwero we7000 madhora, uko mari yacho yaitengeserana pakutanga kwegore.

Uye chimwe chinhu chinotyisa zvikuru kukura kwehuwandu hwekutengesa bitcoin mukutsinhana. Zuva rega rega inorekodha nezve $30 bhiriyoni akakosha ekutengeserana, nepo muQ4 yaive madhora makumi maviri emadhora. Ndiko kuti, kudiwa kwemusika kuri kukura.

Isu hatisi kana mutengo wayo uchawedzera, asi furati inogara iri maitiro. Basa redu nderekutora divi rekurudyi. Uye kana tikafunga kuti bitcoin haina kudzorwa nenyika chero ipi zvayo, haisi pasi pekukwira kwemitengo uye inogumira mukuburitsa, ine mikana yese yekuve iyo huru yakachengeteka nzvimbo kune vanoisa mari.

Kwose uko dambudziko rinoshanduka, rangarira - zvinhu zvakatsanangurwa muchinyorwa ichi ndiwo kiyi yekunzwisisa zviri kuitika. Misika ichapora, zvinhu zvichadzokera kune zvakajairwa kune vanhu, asi kusvika ipapo tichaona stock rally, yakasimba bullish maitiro, kudonha uye kubhuroka. Izvi ndizvo zvatichange tichibata nazvo uye kuita mari kubva.

Nyoresa Olymp Trade & Tora Yemahara $10,000Wana $10,000 Yemahara kune vanotanga