Ndemanga ya Katswiri wa Olymp Trade pa Global Financial Crisis

14/12/2023 493 0

Kodi n’zotheka kunena kuti vutoli linayamba mwadzidzidzi? Ayi. Kutsika kwachuma kunali mumlengalenga pamene chuma chinali chitakula mofulumira kwa nthawi yaitali popanda kutsika kwa nthawi yaitali.

Vuto lomwe likubwera lidalumikizidwa mobwerezabwereza ndi kuchuluka kwa Federal Reserve kapena nkhondo yamalonda pakati pa China ndi United States. Koma zinthu zoopsa zinali kuchepa.

Mu 2018, a Donald Trump adatha kukakamiza Fed kuti isinthe mapulani ake ndikusiya lingaliro lakulimbitsa ndondomeko yandalama. Mikangano yamalonda pakati pa Beijing ndi Washington mwadzidzidzi inatha mwamtendere.

Chiwopsezo chatsopanocho chinabwera mwadzidzidzi. Ndipo ngati sitiganizira za chiphunzitso cha chiwembu cha COVID-19 chonena za chiyambi chochita kupanga cha coronavirus ndi kufalikira kwake komwe kukukonzekera, mliriwu udawulula mabala omwe sanachiritsidwe azachuma padziko lonse lapansi.

Palibe amene akudziwa zomwe zichitike. Pali zochitika zambiri momwe zinthu zingayambire. Munthawi yovutayi, ntchito yathu ndikupeza chidziwitso choyenera ndikukhazikitsa zosankha zathu zandalama pazowona ndi malingaliro oyenera.

Ngati mukufuna kumvetsetsa zomwe zidachitika pazachuma komanso chifukwa chake aliyense adayamba kuyankhula mwadzidzidzi zamavuto azachuma, nkhaniyi ithandiza. Tapereka ndondomeko yachidule ya zomwe zikuchitika ndikusonkhanitsa deta yoyenera yomwe ingakuthandizeni kupanga chisankho choyenera.

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MATENDA A COVID19. Zochitika Zitatu ndi Chiyembekezo Chochepa

Palibe amene akanaganiza kuti mliri wa COVID-19 coronavirus upangitsa kuti anthu azikhala kwaokha padziko lonse lapansi, kutsekedwa kwa malire ndi kutsegulidwa kwa "piggy banks" zaboma. Dziko lapansi lidakumana ndi mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya chimfine, SARS ndi matenda ena owopsa omwe amafa kwambiri, kotero kuyankha kwapadziko lonse ku COVID-19 kwachedwa kwambiri.

Komabe, kuzindikira pang'onopang'ono za kuopsa ndi njira zodzipatula kunali domino yoyamba pamndandanda wazinthu zoyipa. Ndipo mpaka mliri utagonjetsedwe mwalamulo, munthu sayenera kuyembekezera kuyambiranso kwachuma ndi masheya.

Nthawi zambiri, zinthu zitha kuchitika motengera chimodzi mwazinthu izi:

Pang'ono ndi pang'ono, chiwerengero cha anthu omwe amafa chidzachepetsedwa kukhala osachepera. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, zoletsa zokhala kwaokha zidzachepa. Pamenepa, kuyambiranso kwachuma kungatenge zaka.
Katemera wogwira mtima adzapangidwa. Mpaka nthawi imeneyo, mayiko adzawononga ndalama zambiri kuti athetse vuto la mliriwu, koma katemera akapezeka, chuma chidzayamba kukula mwachangu.
Mliriwu sudzatha, koma pakhala COVID-19 yatsopano kapena kufalikira kwake.

Mfundo yakuti posachedwapa, mliriwo udzatha, imatipatsa chiyembekezo. Zaka zoposa 100 zapitazo, dziko lonse linadwala chimfine cha ku Spain, chomwe chinapha anthu pakati pa 25 miliyoni ndi 100 miliyoni. Pazonse, pafupifupi 30% ya anthu padziko lapansi adakhudzidwa. Madokotala amati coronavirus yamakono ndiyowopsa kwambiri.

Mkhalidwe Woipa Kwambiri Kuyambira Nkhondo Yachiwiri Yapadziko Lonse

Pothirirapo ndemanga pazovuta za COVID-19, Woyang'anira Bungwe la International Monetary Fund a Kristalina Georgieva adati: "Tikuyembekeza kugwa kwachuma koipitsitsa kuyambira Chisokonezo Chachikulu".

Maboma, mabanki apakati ndi amalonda tsopano akuyesera kuwerengera kuchuluka kwa chuma chomwe akukumana nacho chaka chino. Malinga ndi kuyerekezera koyambirira, GDP ya US ikhoza kutsika ndi gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu mu kotala ino.

Ofufuza a banki yaku Swiss Credit Suisse analemba izi: “Chuma cha US chidzatsika ndi 33.5%. Izi zikutanthauza kuti nthawi yoyambira pa Epulo 1 mpaka Juni 30 ikupanga kukhala koyipa kwambiri pa mbiri kubwerera ku 1945 ”.

Akatswiri a Bank of America, omwe anali m'gulu la oyamba kuyerekeza kunena kuti US idagwa pansi, alosera za kuchepa kwa GDP ndi 12%.

Tikayerekeza momwe zinthu zilili panopa ndi mavuto azachuma a 2008, tikhoza kunena kuti vutoli lidzakhala lovuta kwambiri. Poyerekeza: mu gawo lachinayi la 2008, kutsika kwa GDP kunali kokha 6.3%. Nthawi yomweyo, kugwa kwa index ya SP 500 panthawiyi kunali pafupifupi 30%.

Mwanjira ina, kuwongolera kwaposachedwa kwa 35% kwa msika wamasheya waku US ndi kutsika kopitilira muyeso kunali chizindikiro choyamba. Mwinamwake chifukwa cha ichi, golidi wakhala akufunidwa kwambiri kuyambira chiyambi cha chaka. Mu April, mtengo wachitsulo wamtengo wapatali unaphwanya mbiri ya zaka zisanu ndi ziwiri zapitazi.

Koma zitha kukhala zoyipa kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi kwa mayiko omwe chuma chawo chikugwirizana kwambiri ndi kutumiza mafuta kunja.

Mafuta: Russia Demarche ndi Payback ndi Saudi Arabia

Mayiko otumiza golide wakuda adachitapo kanthu kuti athe kuthana ndi kuchuluka kwamafuta ndi kufunikira kwa 2016, pomwe osewera ofunika pamsika wamafuta adamaliza zomwe zimatchedwa mgwirizano wa OPEC + - mgwirizano wochepetsa kupanga mafuta kwakanthawi kochepa.

Komabe, pambuyo pa kuwonjezereka kwa mgwirizano kangapo, panalibe mgwirizano wochepa pakati pa magulu. Msikawu sunamvere zonena za ogulitsa ang'onoang'ono, monga Ecuador. Komabe, kukana kwa Russia kuvomereza kuchepetsedwa kwina kwa kuchuluka kwa zinthu zopanda pake zomwe zidapangidwa zidatanthauza kutha kwa mgwirizano wa OPEC +.

Pa Marichi 6, maphwando adalephera kuvomerezananso kudula kwina. Russia, Kazakhstan ndi Azerbaijan anakana kuthandizira kuchepetsedwa kwa magawo, omwe Saudi Arabia adayankha ndi chinyengo chodziwika bwino kuyambira zaka za m'ma 80 - inachepetsa mitengo ya mafuta ndikulengeza kuwonjezeka kwa mitengo yopangira. Pofika pa Epulo 1, golide wakuda anali atatsika mtengo ndi kupitilira theka: Brent idatsika kuchoka pa $50 mpaka $23 pa mbiya, WTI idatsika kuchoka pa $46 mpaka $20.

Purezidenti wa US a Donald Trump adalowererapo pazovuta zamafuta posonkhanitsa akuluakulu aku Russia ndi Saudi Arabia kuti ayambirenso kukambirana. Mwa njira, ma dipatimenti apadera a US adalola mwayi woti akhazikitse zilango ku Russia ndi Saudi Arabia, ngati mayikowa sapeza chiwopsezo.

Koma pamene oyendetsa mafuta akukambirana, dziko lonse lapansi linasiya kukana kuopsa kwa mliri wa COVID-19 ndikuyamba kuchitapo kanthu. Kuchepa kwa ntchito zamalonda, kutsika kwa malonda ndi kusokonezeka kwa kayendedwe ka kunja ndi kuitanitsa kunja kunachititsa kuti mafuta awonongeke, koma kupanga sikunayime.

Msika Wofunika Kuti "Uwuzidwe"

Otsatsa adadekha kwakanthawi pambuyo poti omwe atenga nawo gawo ku OPEC + adagwirizana kuti achepetse kupanga ndi migolo pafupifupi 10 miliyoni patsiku. Komabe, kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zasungidwa kudayambitsa kugulitsa kwatsopano.

Pafupifupi migolo yowonjezera 13 miliyoni idalembedwa mlungu uliwonse, kotero amalonda anayamba kuyankhula mwamsanga za kuchepetsa kusungirako.

Msika unali wofunika kwambiri kuti utulutsidwe, chifukwa kupsinjika kunali kwakukulu kwambiri. Zinapangitsa kugwa kodabwitsa kwa tsogolo la WTI. Mgwirizano wa Meyi yobweretsera sunali wotsika mtengo chabe. Kwa nthawi yoyamba, mtengo wamafuta udatsekedwa m'dera loyipa ndikufikira $40 pa mbiya!

Zoonadi, zenizeni za zida zamtunduwu zinkasewera - zam'tsogolo zimakhala ndi nthawi yochepa yozungulira, ndipo amalonda anayamba kuchotsa mapanganowa asanathe (palibe amene amafunikira mafuta enieni).

Koma ngati sitilowa mozama muzambiri zamakontrakitala osinthanitsa, titha kunena kuti mafuta sangawononge $100 kapena $50. Izi zikuwonekera chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zimasungidwa m'malo osungira, kuchepa kwa kuchuluka kwa zinthuzo, komanso kuchepa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi.

Mitengo yotsika ya golidi wakuda idzakhudza makamaka mayiko omwe ndalama zawo zimagwirizana kwambiri ndi ndalama zogulitsa mafuta kunja - mwachitsanzo, mayiko a Middle East, Mexico, Norway ndi Russia.

Nthawi zambiri, amatha kupulumuka mosavuta chifukwa cha nkhokwe zomwe anazisonkhanitsa. Koma mavuto azachuma omwe abwera chifukwa cha mliri wa COVID-19 amafunikira ndalama zambiri.

Kodi Makampani Amafuta Adzawonetsa Mphamvu Zabwino?

Tidalandira ndemanga pankhaniyi kuchokera kwa katswiri wodziyimira pawokha kuchokera kugawo lamagetsi:

"Ngati Saudi Arabia, US ndi Russia sachitapo kanthu mwachangu pa mgwirizano wochepetsera kupanga, mitengo idzatsika kwambiri pazomwe zikuchitika pano.

Njira yokhayo yopanda ngozi yokwezera mtengo ndikuwonjezera zochitika zachuma ku China ndi US. Zikatero, ngati kumwa kukayamba kuchulukirachulukira, tiwona kuwonjezeka kwapang'onopang'ono kwa mawu. Komabe, kutengera mikhalidwe yazachuma padziko lonse lapansi, izi ndizokayikitsa kuti zingachitike.

M'mbuyomu, misika nthawi zambiri 'inapulumutsidwa' ku kuchuluka kwa zinthu pamsika chifukwa cha kufalikira kwa ziwawa m'maiko amodzi kapena angapo omwe amatumiza mafuta kunja. Mwachitsanzo, mikangano ya ku Libya, Iraq, ndi Venezuela m’zaka makumi angapo zapitazi yachititsa kuti mitengo ya mafuta ikwere.

Amalonda abwino adzakhala akuyang'ana madera opangira mafuta kuti ayambe kuwonjezereka kwadzidzidzi kwa 'ntchito zankhondo', mwamsanga pamene nkhani za mikangano, komanso kuchepa kwa zinthu zochokera m'maderawa, zidzathandiza kuthandizira mitengo ya mafuta.

Popanda mikangano yayikulu kapena kuchepetsedwa kwakukulu kwa kupanga, mitengo yamafuta idzatsika kapena kutsika pang'ono kumapeto kwa chaka chino. Kungotsala pang'ono kufika chaka cha 2021 m'pamene chuma cha padziko lonse chidzakhala ndi mwayi wokulirapo pambuyo pa mliri wa COVID-19 (ngati mliriwu udatha nthawi imeneyo).

Opanga akuluakulu akuyembekezeka kuyamba kugwiritsa ntchito mfundo zatsopano za mgwirizano wa OPEC + mu Meyi. Njira zowonjezera zochepetsera kuchuluka kwa zopanga sizimachotsedwanso. Mwachitsanzo, Purezidenti waku Mexico adalonjeza kuti aganiza zotseka zitsime zonse zatsopano.

Njira ina yotheka kuchoka pazochitikazo idzakhala kuwonekera kwa mgwirizano watsopano wamafuta pakati pa US ndi Saudi Arabia. Zikudziwika kuti akuluakulu aku US akugwira ntchito kale pakukhazikitsa lingaliroli, koma pakadali pano, chofunikira kwambiri ku Washington ndikuthana ndi mliriwu ndikuchotsa pang'ono ziletso zokhala kwaokha.

Financial Apocalypse: Inde kapena Ayi?

Monga tafotokozera pamwambapa, osunga ndalama akhala akumva kuyambika kwa kuwongolera padziko lonse lapansi kwa nthawi yayitali. Pokhala malo otetezeka achikhalidwe, golide adayamba kukula m'chilimwe cha 2019 ndipo wawonjezera zoposa 20%.

Komabe, si onse omwe amavomereza kuti apocalypse yachuma ibwera posachedwa. Tinakambirana ndi wamalonda yemwe akusowa golide wa CFD pogwiritsa ntchito multiplier.

Kusanthula kwake kumachokera ku Elliot Wave Theory. Mwachidule, pogwiritsira ntchito njirayi, amalonda amawona tchati ngati mafunde, kenaka amawagawanitsa ndikupeza yankho la funso lalikulu "Kodi mtengowo upita kuti?"

Ubwino wa njirayi ndi kudziyimira pawokha kwathunthu kusanthula kofunikira. Mawu akuti mayendedwe ali ndi mawonekedwe ngati mafunde amatengedwa ngati axiom. Ndipo zosakaniza zonse zachitika kale. Popeza panali nkhani zambiri, tinkafuna kupeza maganizo a amalonda omwe samawatsatira.

Kuchokera m'makalata:

"Golide amayankha mokondwera ndi zomwe zikuchitika padziko lapansi. Chikhalidwe cha mafunde (B) chapamwamba chimakwaniritsidwa. Mwina padzakhala kutsika kwakukulu mpaka $900 pa ola limodzi monga gawo la mafunde (C) ".

Ndemanga ya Katswiri wa Olymp Trade pa Global Financial Crisis

Mpikisano Wopulumuka ndi Kugawa Mamiliyoni

Mofanana ndi vuto lililonse, chipwirikiti chamakono chidzakhala chakupha kwa wina. Mwachitsanzo, dziko la Argentina silingagwirizanenso pa kukonzanso ngongole ndi omwe ali ndi ngongole zazikulu. Mokulira, dzikolo linakhala dziko loyamba kuchita katangale.

Kumbali ina, China, yomwe idapeza mwayi kwakanthawi pomwe idachira ku mliriwu. Akuluakulu aku China akulimbikitsa mabizinesi kuti athandizire msika wantchito, koma nthawi yomweyo, akuluakulu aku China akuwona kuti malonda akuchepa - mayiko ena ayamba kugula zochepa.

Zotsatira zoyipa zomwe zingachitike panthawiyi ndizowopsa. Palibe amene angatsimikize kuti mapologalamu oti maboma ayambirenso athandize kuthetsa kugwa kwachuma.

Komabe, njira zokondoweza zaku US zopitilira $6 thililiyoni ndizodabwitsa. Phukusi lopulumutsa la $ 2 thililiyoni lidzagwiritsidwa ntchito kulipira mwachindunji kwa nzika zonse zadzikolo, ndipo $ 4 thililiyoni idzabwera ngati ngongole zofewa zothandizira bizinesi. Chifukwa cha njira zachangu, dola yaku US sinasinthe ndipo tsopano ikugwira ntchito ngati ndalama yotetezedwa.

Boma la Japan likukambirananso za phukusi lalikulu lothandizira. Phukusi lolimbikitsa la $ 1.1 thililiyoni lidzatumizidwa kuti lithandizire mabizinesi ndi nzika. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe akukhulupirira kuti izi zipangitsa kuti GDP ikule kuposa 3%.

Akuluakulu a EU akutsatira njira yomweyo: akufuna kulowetsa theka la thililiyoni mu chuma cha EU. Kuonjezera apo, pali kukambirana koopsa pakati pa atsogoleri a mayiko a euro zone pa nkhani ya "coronabonds". Ma eurobond amenewo atha kuthandiza mayiko omwe akhudzidwa kwambiri ku Europe kuti achire.

Zomwe Wogulitsa Ayenera Kuyang'ana

Mayiko a gawo lachiwiri ndi opatsa pang'ono ndi zolimbikitsa. Mwachikhalidwe, amakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi zovuta chifukwa cha machitidwe osagwira ntchito komanso kusowa kwa mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya zachuma. Maderawa amadalira kwambiri malonda apadziko lonse, koma amatha kusonyeza kukula kwakukulu.

Ngati mukufunadi kupindula ndi kukula kwamtsogolo, tcherani khutu ku mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene monga Brazil. Mukhoza kugula kapena kugulitsa magawo ETF MSCI Brazil 3x. Izi zikuphatikiza makampani otsogola ku Brazil.

Mutha kusankhanso masheya amakampani akuluakulu aku US omwe amawonetsa mikhalidwe ya wolamulira yekha, monga Facebook ndi Google. Makampani onsewa ndi nsanja zazikulu zotsatsa, ndipo mabungwewa saopa kuyika ndalama pachitukuko ngakhale munthawi yamavuto.

Google imapanga mafoni am'manja ndikuwongolera ukadaulo wapa intaneti. Facebook imadziyesa yokha ngati chida cholipira ndipo ikuyembekeza kubwereza kupambana kwa Chinese WeChat. Mosiyana ndi maboma, makampani a IT amadziwa bwino zosowa za msika ndipo amapita patsogolo. Njira imeneyi nthawi zambiri imabweretsa phindu kwa osunga ndalama.

Bitcoin ngati Malo Otetezeka kwa Wogulitsa

M'gawo loyamba la 2020, bitcoin idakwanitsa kukula mpaka $ 10000 ndikugwa mpaka $4000. Ofalitsa nkhani adanena kuti chumacho chikutsatira zochitika za msika wogulitsa.

Komabe, pamene zinthu zachuma padziko lonse lapansi zikuipiraipira, cryptocurrency idavumbulutsa chinthu chosagwirizana nacho - kulakalaka bata. Izi zikhoza kutsimikiziridwa ndi kubwereranso ku mlingo wa $ 7000, kumene ndalamazo zinkagulitsa kumayambiriro kwa chaka.

Ndipo chinthu china chodetsa nkhawa kwambiri ndikukula kwa malonda a bitcoin pakusinthana. Tsiku lililonse imalemba zamalonda zamtengo wapatali za $ 30 biliyoni, pomwe mu Q4 inali pafupifupi $ 20 biliyoni. Ndiko kuti, kufunikira kwa msika kukukulirakulira.

Sitikudziwa ngati mtengo wake udzawonjezeka, koma lathyathyathya nthawi zonse amakhala chikhalidwe. Ntchito yathu ndikutenga mbali yoyenera. Ndipo ngati tiganizira kuti bitcoin sichiyang'aniridwa ndi dziko lililonse, sichikukhudzidwa ndi kukwera kwa mitengo ndipo ili ndi malire pakupanga, ili ndi mwayi wonse wokhala malo otetezeka kwa osunga ndalama.

Kulikonse kumene vutolo likutembenukira, kumbukirani - zomwe zafotokozedwa m'nkhaniyi ndizomwe zimakuthandizani kumvetsetsa zomwe zikuchitika. Misika idzachira, zinthu zidzabwerera mwakale kwa anthu, koma mpaka nthawi imeneyo tidzawona misonkhano yamalonda, machitidwe amphamvu a bullish, kugwa ndi kugwa. Izi ndi zomwe tikhala tikulimbana nazo ndikupanga ndalama.

Lembani Olymp Trade & Pezani Zaulere $10,000Pezani $10,000 Yaulere kwa oyamba kumene